County-level COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model for US
We have developed a spatio-temporal epidemiological prediction model to inform county-level COVID-19 risk in the USA. Through this new health information system we hope to provide timely risk evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 infection in communities. This is the first modeling paradigm to use self-immunization from antibody tests to predict community level risk. Additionally, it is the first paradigm to use time-varying state-specific control measures assessed by mobile cell phone data. This new toolbox enables projection of the county-level COVID-19 prevalence over 3109 counties in the continental US. Such high-resolution risk projection is useful for decision-making on business reopening and resource allocation for COVID-19 tests.